Standard Analysis: The Match-Win Percentages

Posted in PRO TOUR AMONKHET on May 14, 2017

By Frank Karsten

In total, 1,457 matches of Standard were played during the Swiss rounds of Pro Tour Amonkhet, with a variety of Standard decks. To learn which decks performed the best, I analyzed the raw match results with the deck archetype of every player.

Methodological Notes

  • I distinguish between (detailed) micro-archetype names and (broad) macro-archetype names. For instance, "Mono-Black Zombies" and "White-Black" Zombies" are micro-archetypes, while "Zombies" is a macro-archetype name that encompasses both variants.
  • Mirror matches between the same micro-archetypes are excluded from the analysis. This means that any match between two Mono-Black Zombies decks is tossed out, but any match between Mono-Black Zombies and White-Black Zombies is retained.
  • Matches that resulted in a draw are excluded from the analysis as well.
  • I am using the same micro- and macro-archetype names as in the Day Two metagame breakdown. That article contains short descriptions on the key cards and typical game plans of the various archetypes.
  • For every micro-archetype, the tables below provide the win percentage (and, between brackets, the corresponding win-loss record over all ten Standard rounds) against the Aetherworks Marvel macro-archetype, the Mardu Vehicles macro-archetype, and the Zombies macro-archetype. The final column contains the overall numbers (excluding mirror matches as described above) against any opponent.
  • To clarify: this final number includes the results against "other" macro-archetypes (i.e., other than Marvel, Mardu, and Zombies) as well, so it's not necessarily a weighted average of the preceding three columns. I opted not to include a "Vs. Other" column for brevity, but you can obtain the numbers by subtracting the records of the first three columns from the one in the final column. This way, you could find that Temur Aetherworks with Chandra, Flamecaller went 6-3 against "other" macro-archetypes, even if I don't see a real use for this stat.

The Most-Played Decks

The following micro-archetypes played in at least 60 Standard matches total. Temur Aetherworks Marvel versions that diverged from the stock builds by including either Chandra, Flamecaller or Censor/Glimmer of Genius performed the best. Keep in mind, however, that most of these decks were piloted by some of the best Platinum pros in the room, which will skew their win percentages.

Archetype Vs. Marvel Vs. Mardu Vs. Zombies Overall
Flamecaller Temur Aetherworks 75.9% (22-7) 54.5% (6-5) 57.9% (11-8) 66.2% (45-23)
Spell-Heavy Temur Aetherworks 57.1% (20-15) 65.4% (17-9) 58.1% (18-13) 60.8% (73-47)
Mono-Black Zombies 50.7% (74-72) 58.8% (80-56) 41.7% (10-14) 56.5% (244-188)
Black-Green Energy 59.1% (13-9) 50% (9-9) 40% (4-6) 55.4% (41-33)
Stock Mardu Midrange 41.4% (65-92) 47.8% (11-12) 49.6% (69-70) 50% (244-244)
Stock Temur Aetherworks 41% (25-36) 56.5% (61-47) 48.1% (37-40) 49.6% (171-174)
White-Black Zombies 61.5% (16-10) 28.1% (9-23) 58.3% (14-10) 49.1% (57-59)
Sultai Aetherworks 40% (12-18) 50% (10-10) 37% (10-17) 48.6% (53-56)
Blue-Red Control 36.4% (8-14) 31.6% (12-26) 55.6% (15-12) 45.8% (54-64)
White-Blue Flash 25% (5-15) 15.4% (2-11) 33.3% (4-8) 31.7% (19-41)

Mono-Black Zombies had better overall results than White-Black Zombies, but the variant with Wayward Servant was better in the mirror match. (Because mirror matches between micro-archetypes are excluded, the 14-10 result refers only to the matches between White-Black Zombies and Mono-Black Zombies.)

If you're looking for a deck to beat Aetherworks Marvel and Zombies—the two most popular macro-archetypes in the Top 8—then the data above would suggest White-Black Zombies as a good choice. It performed poorly against Mardu Vehicles, but Mardu Vehicles as a whole had an average performance (literally 50%!) at this Pro Tour and may fall out of favor as a result.

The Lesser-Played Decks

The following micro-archetypes played at least ten (but less than 60) Standard matches total. If you're looking for a rogue yet well-performing Standard deck, then you may be interested in Alex Stok's 7-3 White-Black Control deck, Sam Black's 6-4 Abzan Tokens deck, or Mike Brierley's 8-2 Temur Deep-Fiend Energy deck. Their decklists will be posted on the text coverage page later on Sunday.

Archetype Vs. Marvel Vs. Mardu Vs. Zombies Overall
White-Black Control 100% (5-0) 100% (1-0) 0% (0-1) 70% (7-3)
Abzan Tokens 0% (0-2) 50% (1-1) 100% (1-0) 60% (6-4)
Temur Deep-Fiend Energy 44.4% (4-5) 80% (8-2) 42.9% (6-8) 57.8% (26-19)
Mardu Blue 30.8% (4-9) 66.7% (8-4) 64.3% (9-5) 51% (25-24)
Green-White Tokens 0% (0-4) N/A 100% (1-0) 50% (5-5)
Red-White Exert 0% (0-3) 100% (2-0) 0% (0-1) 50% (5-5)
Mardu Inventor's Apprentice 37.5% (6-10) 50% (5-5) 60% (6-4) 50% (20-20)
Jund Gods 40% (2-3) 50% (3-3) 40% (2-3) 50% (11-11)
Bant Aetherworks Marvel 33.3% (3-6) 50% (5-5) 53.8% (7-6) 48.6% (18-19)
Black-Green Constrictor 33.3% (2-4) 28.6% (2-5) 64.3% (9-5) 47.1% (16-18)
White-Blue Spirits 50% (1-1) 66.7% (2-1) 60% (3-2) 46.7% (7-8)
Blue-Red Emerge 0% (0-1) 25% (1-3) 50% (5-5) 45% (9-11)
Temur Dynavolt Tower 66.7% (2-1) 40% (2-3) 100% (3-0) 45% (9-11)
Black-Green Delirium 40% (4-6) 60% (6-4) 36.4% (4-7) 44.7% (17-21)
Temur Energy (Other) 42.9% (6-8) 53.8% (7-6) 40% (4-6) 43.8% (21-27)
Blue-Red Dynavolt Tower 66.7% (2-1) 0% (0-3) 50% (1-1) 40% (6-9)
Sultai Delirium 0% (0-2) 33.3% (1-2) 60% (3-2) 40% (6-9)
Mardu Planeswalkers 50% (2-2) 33.3% (1-2) 0% (0-1) 40% (4-6)
Black-Green Cryptolith Rite 33.3% (4-8) 57.1% (4-3) 38.5% (5-8) 40.9% (18-26)
New Perspectives Combo 12.5% (1-7) 41.7% (5-7) 57.1% (4-3) 38.1% (16-26)
Jeskai Control 66.7% (2-1) 33.3% (2-4) 25% (1-3) 36.8% (7-12)
Four-Color Aetherworks Marvel 33.3% (3-6) 33.3% (2-4) 30% (3-7) 36.8% (14-24)
Black-Red Midrange 20% (1-4) 14.3% (1-6) 50% (4-4) 34.5% (10-19)
Red-White Humans 0% (0-5) 66.7% (2-1) 0% (0-2) 26.7% (4-11)

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