Feature: Day Two Draft
3-0 Analysis

Posted in Event Coverage on May 17, 2014

By Blake Rasmussen

Blake is the content manager for DailyMTG.com, making him the one you should email if you have thoughts on the website, good or less good (or not good). He's a longtime coverage reporter and hasn't turned down a game of Magic in any format ever.

You didn't think we wouldn't come back to this, did you?

Earlier, if you'll recall, we looked at some of the results from the first draft to see if we could pick out some of the trends among the 3-0 draft decks.

In order to get a bit more data to corroborate or enhance those results, we took the same look at the Day Two drafts, adding an additional 29 data points to yesterday's 43 3-0 lists.

So, without further ado...numbers!

Day 2 Color Selections

   
Black 18
Blue 14
Green 12
Red 8
White 7

Day One was pretty even across the board when it came down to simple color selection, as all five colors were fairly equally represented. That wasn't the case on Day Two where black was featured in more than twice as many decks as both red and white, the two runts of the litter.

Combining those results with the Day One numbers gives us:

Day One + Day Two Color Selections

   
Black 38
Blue 32
Green 28
Red 24
White 24

We get a much clearer picture here of the stratification of the colors. Black is significantly ahead, blue and green represent the second tier, and red and white bring up the rear. That said, no color appears unplayable in a vacuum.

So, you can still play any color, but black, green, and blue appear to be the most consistent winners. What about archetypes?

First, a reminder of what Day One's breakdown looked like.

Day One Archetypes

   
White-Red 8
Blue-Green 7
White-Black 6
Black-Green 5
Blue-Black 5
Black-Red 3
Blue-Red 3
White-Blue 2
Red-Green 1
White-Green-Red 1
White-Green 0

Now here's Day 2, listed in the same order for comparison's sake:

Day Two Archetypes

   
White-Red 2
Blue-Green 5
White-Black 3
Black-Green 2
Blue-Black 8
Black-Red 4
Blue-Red 0
White-Blue 0
Red-Green 2
Blue-Black-Green 1
White-Green 2

That looks quite a bit different. The darling of Day One, White-Red, falls way back in the pack. Blue-black, a middle-of-the-pack finisher on Day One, stepped up its game on Day Two.

The more important numbers, however, are when we combine the two to get data on a full 72 3-0 draft decks, again listed in the same order for comparison's sake.

Day One + Day Two Archetypes

   
White-Red 10
Blue-Green 12
White-Black 9
Black-Green 7
Blue-Black 13
Black-Red 7
Blue-Red 3
White-Blue 2
Red-Green 3
Multicolor Green 2
White-Green 2

We have a pretty stratified selection here. The top tier is clearly made up of, in some order:

White-Red

Blue-Green

White-Black

Black-Green

Blue-Black

Black-Red

Those six archetypes represent 58 of the 72 decks, or slightly more than 80 percent. Each archetype individually makes up about 10 percent or more. None of the bottom four archetypes (nor Multicolor Green decks) even crack 5 percent.

All of the usual caveats about small samples sizes apply, but 72 drafts is enough to see some clear patterns in the numbers. It's surprising to see White-Blue do so poorly when that heroic archetype seemed to be pushed so hard in Theros, but losing multiple packs of Wingsteed Riders and Battlewise Hoplites – not to mention all-star Hopeful Eidolon – just can't be made up for, not even with all of the Lagonna-Band Trailblazers and Akroan Skyguards in the world.

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