Sunday, 3:29 p.m. – Playing for the Top 8: Round 14 Metagame Recap

Finding the way into the Top 8 of a Grand Prix invariably comes down to the crucial last couple rounds. It's a small spread that separates those vying for a title from those settling for just Top 16. This is how the leaderboard looked at the end of Round 13:

From the four players at 36 points, two would be ensured to make Top 8. Behind them a wall of players with 33 points set up a sieve of win-two-matches that would sift out the remainder. There would be no room for anyone with more than two losses to sneak into the final showdown, and it would take a near miracle for anyone with two losses and a tie to overtake one of the twenty-three above.

Compared to the start of Day 2, the metagame for Top 8 potential players has one significant difference: Affinity is missing from the list of archetypes being played. A typically powerful deck, one that carried itself to the finals of the largest Modern tournament in history at Grand Prix Richmond, it isn't clear why it's not visible here.

What is clear is that White-Blue-Red Control improved in rank to second overall played. While it may be the case that it's simply a well-positioned deck for the weekend, another consideration is the relative stability across Modern. Expecting to see Birthing Pod , Affinity, Splinter Twin, as well as Jund and general Rock-type decks means players that have chosen this control path have had more time to learn their decks. All things being equal, formats tend towards control strategies as they mature since the answers and tools needed for other decks become well know.

Assuming some combination of Birthing Pod and White-Blue Control decks in the Top 8 the last remaining question is this: Will Scapeshift, Tron, or another less-popular deck find its way into the finale of Grand Prix Minneapolis? It will take the last round to find out.