Core Set Survivor: Magic 2011 Edition

Posted in Feature on June 9, 2010

By Monty Ashley

Last Friday, Tom LaPille asked three questions at the end of Latest Developments. Well, he technically asked four, but the last three are the ones we're talking about today:

  • Precisely eight cards have appeared in every core set from Alpha through Magic 2010. How many of these eight do you think will be in Magic 2011?
  • Which of the eight cards are you most confident will be IN Magic 2011?
  • Which of the eight cards are you most confident will be OUT of Magic 2011?

Before we get into the answers (by which I mean both the answers you gave and the real answers, let's talk about the history of these eight cards, much of which is borrowed from this Mark Rosewater article from 2005.

There were 283 cards in Alpha. Only 250 of those cards made it into Revised. We're down to eight cards that have been in every core set. Before we list them, here's the round-by-round breakdown.

Alpha: 283
Revised: 250
Fourth Edition: 211
Fifth Edition: 151
Sixth Edition: 79
Seventh Edition: 60
Eighth Edition: 40
Ninth Edition: 24
Tenth Edition: 16
Magic 2010: 8

And here are the eight cards:

Air Elemental
Bog Wraith
Drudge Skeletons
Giant Growth
Giant Spider
Howling Mine
Nightmare
Rod of Ruin

So! Let's get some results!

How Many Cards Are Left?

Precisely eight cards have appeared in every core set from Alpha through Magic 2010. How many of these eight do you think will be in Magic 2011?
None of them 689 4.9%
1 159 1.1%
2 213 1.5%
3 512 3.7%
4 1882 13.5%
5 1661 11.9%
6 1925 13.8%
7 1375 9.9%
All eight! 5540 39.7%
Total 13956 100.0%
 

And the winner is ... click here to find out!

...two! Yes! As of Magic 2011, only two cards will have been in every Core Set! Betcha didn't see that coming! Except for the 1.5% of you that did!

Which Cards Made It?

In order to get a prediction from the crowd (that's you), we asked the same question in two different ways: which card do you think is in, and which card do you think is out? And here are the results!

Which card do you think is in?
Giant Growth 6657 44.4%
Howling Mine 3736 24.9%
Air Elemental 1231 8.2%
Drudge Skeletons 945 6.3%
Nightmare 783 5.2%
None of them 639 4.3%
Giant Spider 574 3.8%
Rod of Ruin 322 2.1%
Bog Wraith 97 0.6%
Total 14984 100.0%
Which card do you think is out?
Rod of Ruin 3862 25.5%
Drudge Skeletons 3738 24.7%
None of them 1903 12.6%
Nightmare 1455 9.6%
Bog Wraith 1323 8.7%
Howling Mine 1286 8.5%
Air Elemental 782 5.2%
Giant Spider 545 3.6%
Giant Growth 263 1.7%
Total 15157 100.0%
 

If there's a consensus to be drawn from these two polls, it's that the community is pretty confident that Giant Growth is in Magic 2010. And the community is ...

... correct!

So Giant Growth is one of two cards that has made it through twelve core sets. And which is the other?



 

Giant Spider! It didn't do all that well on the "what card do you think is in" poll, but it was second-to-last on "what card do you think is out?"

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