Round 1, Game 3:
- Vhati has 31 cards in his graveyard, and 9 in play. That leaves exactly 20 cards left in his deck (since the required deck size was 60 cards).
- Tap all your land and your Signet for mana.
- Transmute Dimir Infiltrator into Glimpse the Unthinkable.
- Transmute Muddle the Mixture into Twincast.
- Cast Glimpse the Unthinkable targeting Vhati, and copy it with Twincast.
- Vhati has no cards left in his deck and will die on his next draw step.
Round 2, Game 3:
- You must consider all the possible tricks that your opponent has. With no mana available, the only relevant options are:
- The only way you can lose the game is to attack with Nekrataal, and have the first strike damage Shining Shoaled back to you. Because of this, you will not attack with Nekrataal unless you know you can avoid the Shoal.
- The only creatures that can stop you with Chord of Calling are Ornithopter and Kami of False Hope.
- Devouring Light, Sundering Vitae, Gather Courage, Shining Shoal with damage on the stack, and Chord of Calling for Kami of False Hope will automatically force the game into a draw, so you cannot effectively play around those situations.
- Cast Dizzy Spell targeting Drift of Phantasms. This will put Circu's ability on the stack. You might get lucky and pull Ornithopter or Kami of False Hope out of the deck.
- Your opponent can always respond to the trigger by casting Chord of Calling for Ornithopter. If they do, then you know they do not have an active Shining Shoal in their hand. Therefore, you can attack with Nekrataal, and still have enough damage for the win.
- Cast Last Gasp targeting Drift of Phantasms, using the same logic above.
- Assuming Chord of Calling was not cast, attack with everyone except Nekrataal. Unless your opponent has a trick mentioned above, you will win the game.
Round 3, Game 2:
- Tap all your lands and your Signet to get five each of Black and Blue mana.
- Use to cast Gifts Ungiven for Peel from Reality, Teardrop Kami, Dimir Machinations, and Drift of Phantasms.
- If you receive either card with Transmute:
- Use to transmute into Spawnbroker.
- Cast Spawnbroker with your remaining mana, exchanging Helldozer for Stabwhiskers.
- Pass the turn, and during her upkeep, your opponent will die to Stabwhisker's ability.
- If you receive Peel from Reality and Teardrop Kami:
Round 4, Game 2:
- Tap an Island and cast Teardrop Kami.
- Attack with Mindleech Mass, Undercity Shade, and Wizened Snitches. Your opponent will be best off blocking the Mass, but will still take 3 damage and the Mass will trigger.
- Play Auratouched Mage from his hand, fetching Followed Footsteps out of your deck.
- Tap three more Islands and play Copy Enchantment, copying Followed Footsteps. Enchant your Teardrop Kami.
- Pass the turn and let your opponent draw Worship.
- During their draw step, tap your remaining mana and cast Time Stop.
- During your upkeep, your will receive a copy of Auratouched Mage and Teardrop Kami.
- Draw a card for your turn (assume it is something that will not help you).
- Pay and sacrifice the Teardrop Kami copy to tap your opponent's token (the Pithing Needle does not affect the copy, since it is not a card).
- Attack with Mindleech Mass, Undercity Shade, Wizened Snitches, Teardrop Kami, and Auratouched Mage. Your opponent will take all 12 damage, and be down to 4.
- Play Worship from his hand.
- Tap Llanowar Wastes, Underground Sea, and 3 Islands to play Soul Feast targeting your opponent for the final 4 damage.
Round 4, Game 3:
- Spawnbroker (3 mana)
Swap Moroii for any of Argus's creatures. He will lose 1 life during his upkeep and lose the game.
- Drift of Phantasms (6 mana)
Transmute into Spawnbroker, and use the Spawnbroker solution.
- Hex (6 mana)
Cast Hex targeting every creature in play. Booby Trap will kill Argus during his upkeep.
- Golgari Guildmage (7 mana)
Cast the Guildmage and use its ability to put a +1/+1 counter on Necroplasm. At the end of your turn all of Argus's creatures will die, and he will die from the Booby Trap during his upkeep.
- Muddle the Mixture or Dimir Infiltrator (10 mana)
Transmute into Golgari Guildmage and use that solution.
- Gifts Ungiven (7, 10, or 11 mana)
Search for Golgari Guildmage, Spawnbroker, Hex, and any other card.
- Twisted Justice (9 or 12 mana)
Sacrifice Necroplasm to draw four cards. You will win if you draw Spawnbroker or transmute Drift of Phantasms into Spawnbroker.
You can manipulate your library to change the odds of drawing certain cards. Your options include:
- Sacrifice the Terrarion immediately.
- Transmute Dizzy Spell into Unholy Strength to shuffle your library, then sacrifice the Terrarion.
- Play Glimpse, transmute Dizzy Spell, sacrifice Terrarion.
Playing Glimpse without later randomizing your deck does not affect your odds. So which option is best?
If you just sacrifice the Terrarion, you have no chance of drawing the Guildmage or Spawnbroker, since they are near the bottom of your library. This leaves you Muddle the Mixture, Dimir Infiltrator, Drift of Phantasms, Hex, or Gifts Ungiven. The probability of drawing each of these is 1/24. You also have a 1/24 chance of drawing Twisted Justice, in which case you can win if Drift of Phantasms is among the next four cards. The probability of that happening is 4/23, making the total probability of winning (1/24 * 5) + (1/24 * 4/23) = 119/552 ~ 21.6%.
If you transmute Dizzy Spell and then sacrifice the Terrarion, you have 27 random cards in your library. Since you have 9 mana remaining, you can win with Golgari Guildmage, Spawnbroker, Hex, or Drift of Phantasms. The probability of drawing each of these is 1/27. In addition, if you draw Twisted Justice, you can win if Spawnbroker is among the next four cards, which has a probability of 4/26. Hence, the total probability of winning is (1/27 * 4) + (1/27 * 4/26) ~ 15.4%.
If you play Glimpse the Unthinkable, you mill yourself for 10. The probability that you will mill the 2 remaining 1-mana spells in your library is 10/24 * 9/23 = 15/92. Therefore, when you transmute Dizzy Spell, you have a 15/92 chance to be left with an 18-card library, and a 77/92 chance to be left with a 17-card library. You will have seven mana remaining, so you will still win if you draw Guildmage, Spawnbroker, Hex, or Drift. Since the Guildmage and Spawnbroker are definitely still in your library, the probability of drawing each is (1/18 * 15/92) + (1/17 * 77/92) = 547/9384. Hex and Drift may be in your library or may be in the 10 cards that were milled, so the probability of drawing each is (1/28 * 15/92) + (1/27 * 77/92) = 2561/69552. The total probability of winning is therefore (2 * 547/9384) + (2 * 2561/69552) = 112459/591192 ~ 19.0%.
Unfortunately, the odds were against you and you failed to draw either Hex or the Golgari Guildmage, and you lost the final game. That just reinforced the fact that Magic is both a game of skill and chance.
Below is an image of something I've been constructing for quite some time now. I add one new card to the matrix each day. Can anyone figure out what it is? Feel free to post guesses in the forums.