MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Posted in GRAND PRIX LOS ANGELES 2014 - COVERAGE - EVENTS on October 20, 2014

By Frank Karsten

After hundreds of Day 2 matches, I always like to run the numbers.

Here is the average number of match points gained during the Swiss rounds of the Sunday competition by pilots of the top five most represented archetypes:

Mardu Midrange: 10.3
Abzan Midrange: 9.1
Jesai Wins: 7.6
Abzan Aggro: 7.5
Green Devotion: 7.4

Here, 9 points would represent an average 3-3 record, or even slightly better than that because people drawing and dropping might reduce the overall point total a little bit.

What we learn from these numbers is that relative newcomer Mardu Midrange, which didn't do all that well at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir, had an impressive performance this weekend. Featuring heavy-hitters like Butcher of the Horde, and tweaked towards beating Jeskai Wins and Abzan Midrange, it has the right tools to compete in this Standard metagame. Be sure to check out Brad Nelson's decklist from the Top 8!

Next up, I have the matchup scores between these archetypes for you:

Abzan Midrange Jeskai Wins Abzan Aggro Green Devotion Mardu Midrange
Abzan Midrange X 35-19 (65%) 16-9 (64%) 10-6 (63%) 4-9 (31%)
Jeskai Wins 19-35 (35%) X 7-10 (41%) 10-9 (53%) 5-10 (33%)
Abzan Aggro 9-16 (36%) 10-7 (58%) X 2-4 (33%) 3-3 (50%)
Green Devotion 6-10 (38%) 9-10 (47%) 4-2 (67%) X 2-4 (33%)
Mardu Midrange 9-4 (69%) 10-5 (67%) 3-3 (50%) 4-2 (67%) X

The way to interpret these numbers is that, for example, Abzan Midrange beat Jeskai Wins 35 times and lost to Jeskai Wins 19 times over the course of Day 2. That is, based on this data, it's a 65% favorite in the matchup.

Although the sample size is small for some matchups, we can glean various interesting things from this data. For example, Abzan Midrange is one of the best decks to choose if Jeskai Wins is very popular, while Mardu Midrange is one of the best decks against Abzan Midrange. Useful things to keep in mind in the dynamic Standard metagame that is poised to change from weekend to weekend!