DAY 2 SCORES AND MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Posted in GRAND PRIX STOCKHOLM 2014 - COVERAGE - EVENTS on October 26, 2014

By Frank Karsten

After hundreds of Day 2 matches have concluded, I always like to run the numbers.

Here is the average number of match points gained during the Swiss rounds of the Sunday competition by pilots of the most represented archetypes:

Deck

Number of points

Sidisi-Whip

9.7

Jeskai Wins

9.7

Temur Aggro

9.6

Mardu Midrange

8.3

Abzan Midrange

8.0

Abzan Aggro

6.9

Here, 9 points would represent an average 3-3 record, or even slightly better than that because people drawing and dropping might reduce the overall point total a little bit.

What we learn from these numbers is that Sidisi-Whip, Jeskai Wins, and Temur Aggro all had an impressive performance this weekend. Abzan Aggro, on the other hand, didn’t do as well.

Next up, I have the matchup scores between the top four archetypes for you:

 

Abzan Midrange

Jeskai Wins

Mardu Midrange

Abzan Aggro

Abzan Midrange

X

8-11 (42%)

12-14 (46%)

10-8 (56%)

Jeskai Wins

11-8 (58%)

X

16-8 (67%)

8-5 (62%)

Mardu Midrange

14-12 (54%)

8-16 (33%)

X

9-4 (69%)

Abzan Aggro

8-10 (44%)

5-8 (38%)

4-9 (31%)

X

The way to interpret these numbers is that, for example, Jeskai Wins beat Abzan Midrange 11 times and lost to Abzan Midrange 8 times over the course of Day 2. Hence, based on this data, it’s a 58% favorite in the matchup.

Although the sample size is small for some matchups, we get a strong indication that Jeskai has a great matchup against Mardu. Given that Mardu had risen in popularity this weekend, it’s a good explanation for why Jeskai had bounced back after its poor performance last weekend in LA.